by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
Once a person gives himself up to his emotions, his reason is lost. It is a decision akin to suicide, since it is a decision to stop being reasonable. For those who have made this decision, there is little that can be done, other than perhaps slapping them in the face and telling them to calm down.
However, for those who have not committed this sort of intellectual suicide, facts remain the best defense from panic.
As I reported 5 days ago, the true mortality rate for the Wuhan Virus is not 3.4% as has been reported for weeks by the Main Stream Media, but rather less than 0.5%. And for many of us it is less than 17 chances in 10,000,000. You are more likely to win a small lottery.
And this calculation I arrived at was made on the basis of simple and basic principles of statistical analysis of social phenomenon, which I learned at the University of Florida, Gainesville, back in 1983-4. So I did not use a method which is unknown to anyone who should have basic qualifications to be giving advice to your leaders in the State or in the Church.
My findings were subsequently corroborated by several others, as I reported yesterday, in my article, You won’t die of Corona Virus unless you are already very sick.
Today, I can add several new Medical sources which confirm all of the above.
Stanford Professor says Statistics disprove the Hype
On Tuesday, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis, who is described by DailyWire as, co-director of the Stanford University’s Meta-Research Innovation Center and professor of medicine, biomedical data science, statistics, and epidemiology and population health, in an article entitled, A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data, wrote:
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
wherein, he subsequently affirms that the Wuhan Virus has a true low death rate:
the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
I had estimated the real death rate at 0.51325%, using anthropological principles on how masses of persons react in time of crisis.
Expert Team of Scientists confirm extremely low mortality rates
Now, in a scientific paper by experts in Medicine, Epidemiology and Statistics, there comes further confirmation of the actual death rate.
The paper, entitled, Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission 1 potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 2 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020, was published by Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, and Gerardo Chowell. Their combined expertise is impressive:
Dr. Mizumoto is a Professor at the Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto 7 University Yoshida–Nakaadachi–cho, in Sakyo–ku, Kyoto, Japan/
Drs. Mizumoto and Kagaya, are also researchers at the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, in Sakyo–ku,Kyoto, Japan.
Drs. Mizumoto and Chowell also teach at the Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State 11 University, in Atlanta, Georgia, US.
And finally, Dr. Chowell is a researcher at Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, 13 Kyoto University, in Shirahama–cho, Nishimuro–gun, Wakayama, Japan.
What is the conclusion of their study?
We also found that 50 most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR is estimated 51 to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), which is 52 several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.19%.
My own estimate of the crude likely-hood of death for the majority of actual cases infected as from 0.02% to 0.14%.
My point here is not self-affirmation, but simply to show that the top world experts arrive at the same conclusions, because facts are facts, and there is no way to avoid the reality of the issue. The Wuhan Virus is not a lethal plague.
World Health Organization caught lying about fundamental statistic
The Daily Mail reported yesterday afternoon, that the WHO misrepresented the mortality rate for those dying in hospitals as 3.4% — the figure I presumed was correct in my study — the real statistic for those admitted and diagnosed and subsequently dying is 1.4%, nearly a third of the previous figure. Keep in mind, that the annual winter flue has a mortality rate in the same population of 10%, and nations are never shut down nor are churches closed. Why? because that population is only those admitted to hospitals, and that only happens in extreme cases, not in the general population.
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Agree. Truth is the #1 CV casualty. And the resulting panic is the #1 disease. Reason: Political and religious leadership is lacking.
The road to recovery will be seen when our leaders proclaim we must accept the low CV death rate as collateral damage to keep civil and religious life going.
Panic is the true disease and it has caused our leadership class, who fear we are incapable of handling the truth, and are more worried about retaining their jobs.
They hype was sold to the Lavender Mafia Complicit Bishops very early on and they, very effeminately and fearfully, shut down operations, even before dine-in restaurants and other “higher” risk enterprises were obligated to shut down.
Poland is a perfect example of how the hype promulgated by the Lavender Mafia Complicit Bishops is closer to 0% compared to reality.
Reblogged this on PASSAPAROLADESSO.
God Bless you, Br. Alexis, for fighting the good fight of presenting the truth. As far as I have gleaned so far, the main problem with this corona virus is that it spreads rapidly and can infect vast swathes of population in a very short time. So, thank God, it seems to have rather low overall crude mortality rates. Yet, it seems to have a high penetration within human population, something like a common cold – sooner or later anyone gets it. But, alas, in certain cases, as you have already pointed out several times, it can develop into a life-threatening condition. So, let me make a very crude estimate based on the premise that it can infect more or less everyone exposed to it and that – sooner or later – everyone in the human population becomes exposed to it (rather pessimistic, I admit). So, at the global level, taking the estimated 7.8 billion people (who all should get infected and become sick as a result) and multiplying it by 0.025% and by 0.625%, respectively, the global fatality could range from 1,950,000 to 48,750,000. In Italy, a nation of about 60,46 million souls, this would mean from about 15,115 to 377,886 fatalities (if all get infected and develop symptoms).Anfd provided that – God forbid – no mutant strains with higher virulence appear.
Your calculations are way off. Corona virus is 33% to 16% as lethal as the winter flu, and thus since that kills 500,000 world wide annually we can expect that the Wuhan virus will kill no more than 166,000 world wide. Compare that to the annual world wide death rate of 60 million https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death and you can see that the Wuhan Virus is nothing to worry about except for those without immune systems or chronic health issues.
Fr. Alexis, I very much hope you’re right. My calculations were done on the basis of some (rather uncertain) premises that more or less all people get infected. By the way, do you have any data as to the total number of people infected with the flu annually, or, even better, the percentage of the world’s populations that get sick with flu every year? The big question is, how many people can get this corona virus – the penetration rate of this pathogen in the overall population – versus the incidence of annual flu epidemic. Minuscule percentages of big numbers of potential cases still yield rather large numbers … I would absolutely like to see that this virus would not be as contagious as my premises imply. But we do not know this yet, do we?
However, one thing is certain: many reactions by both secular and ecclesiastic authorities are having disastrous effects on our liberty and God-given rights to worship as Catholics. We are becoming prisoners of perfidious totalitarian dictatorships through disproportionate, ungrounded and unjust measures. And even more terrifying is the possibility of forcing deliberately weaponized vaccines (compulsory vaccinations with deadly poisons and pathogens) on the global population (manipulated by panic and fear-mongering beforehand) for the purpose of depleting the world’s population (many adherents of devil-worshiping elites striving for the New World Order want to achieve this for their own selfish gain).
But, God wins in the end, as the last true Pope, Pope Benedict XVI, has said. So, God Bless and protect you, too, Fr. Alexis.
Dear Primoz,
340 million to 1 billion, according to the WHO
https://www.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_catch_the_flu_each_year
Dear Fr. Alexis,
Thank you very much. This means that the infection penetration rate of annual flu epidemic on a global scale ranges from approx 4,4% to 13%. The crucial issue, therefore, is how many people will get infected by the CV. If an estimate you mentioned in one of your posts from February 2020 is correct (i.e., 2/3 of the world’s population), then the calculations I did in my first comment should be adjusted to give the global fatality rates ranging from about 1,3 million to 32,5 million, whereas for Italy, this would entail fatality estimates from about 10 thousand to around 250 thousand.
God Bless and protect you – and the entie Catholic Church including our beloved Pope Benedict XVI.
When we consider that climatic conditions are essential for high infection rates, then we can lower total infection rate to the entire globe considerably. See my recent article.
New York has normal climate, and a lot of infections, and a very small rate of deaths.
China, excluding Hubei has also a small rate of deaths, and their climate conditions were horrible .
I suppose India has also pollution, but almost no deaths.
Corea has a small number of deaths.
I think in another Medical reason, besides the climate , and also the temperature (you can note the small number of infections and deaths in the word hot places). in general you do not have flu in summer.
The other situation is The virus is less virulent when is spreads from one to another, to another, to another…., so it is also a matter of time.
If Lombardía was a “center “ of expansion , as I think , as Hubei, you can almost explain what is going on on the whole world.