Strategic Analysis by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
If Prighozin had carefully planned his insurrection, events on the ground are not indicating that. Yes, the Deputy Minister of Defense has joined the rebellion, and Putin feared even greater defections inside that ministry, as his forces surrounded and occupied it last night.
So Prighozin is calling more troops from the front to ensure the coup is successful. This makes it appear more credible that Prighozin is not himself on the road to Moscow, with his military column which is making it there post haste.
And that leads me to take a step back and consider what the strategic plan of Prigozhin is, if he has one.
First, by sending a military column toward Moscow he puts Putin in the defensive position. Perhaps calculating that Putin is the kind of paranoid would be paralyzed by the news of a coup, the decision to send a column towards Moscow would be to capitalize on that and neutralize the decision making process of Putin and his circle of commanders — which, to say, should not be difficult, because, as the war has shown in the Ukraine, this inner circle is composed of the most incompetent bumbling idiots in modern warfare.
So the fortification of Rostov then seems to be the major tactical goal. And that means that Prigozhin has a long game strategy here which is not simply attempting a coup-d’etat because of frustration.
If he can succeed winning over the front line commanders who are now bearing the brunt of the Ukrainian Summer offensive of 2023, perhaps he will gamble on making a separate peace with Ukraine to thus free up several 10s of thousands of troops, who, by this time, might be more willing to consider the spoils to be had in a civil war than stealing Ukrainian toilets and stoves.
In the meantime, Kadrov, the leader of the Chehyans loyal to Putin has decided to fight against Prigozhin, and is now marching on Volgograd (former Stalingrad).
In the propaganda war, Putin has taken the high ground appealing to Russian Nationalism. However, Russians are not the ones on the front lines and they have supported the war precisely because Putin has recruited minorities. While Prigozhin is making the horrible mistake of calling the victory he is aiming for a victory for his Wagner PMC and not for Russia.
If Prigozhin’s advance column can disrupt supply lines sufficiently, then the Russian Federation Forces will have a very hard time holding back the Ukrainians and the whole front may falter and collapse.
Then, it may devolve into every man for himself, first.
I think that in the West we might be mischaracterizing what is going on between Prigozhin and Putin. This might not be an insurrection or coup. Russia which is much like the Byzantine Empire has a history of internal power struggles. Like the Roman empire of old, the General who prevails in battle over the ruling General, becomes emperor, so now in Russia, it is a battle for control of the whole state, being played by the elite of the power brokers, on the field of battle. Prigozhin as a battle hardened leader, in this, has a trump card over Putin, who has no military expertise whatsoever. At some point, those around Putin will calculate that more power can be had by eliminating Putin than defending him.
UPDATE: Prigozhin is tweeting his propaganda releases to present his cause to a wider appeal …
