Why the true mortality rates for Corona Virus may be less than 0.1%

By Br. Alexis Bugnolo

The facts are disproving the hype. We are being stirred into a global panic hourly by a Main Stream Media which has no ethical concerns and has no conception of social statistics. As a student in the faculty of Anthropology at the University of Florida, Gainesville, I had to study statistics for social sciences. It was rigorous and precise.

So lets examine the statistics.

Let us take a look at the claim that 3.4% of those who contract Corona Virus 19 die from it.  Here is a trustworthy report from a Western journalist in China, Eunice Yoon, Bureau Chief for CNBC, a US TV News Agency.

Now let us unpack that those statistics tell us.

Eighty-percent of those who have corona virus have a mild flu.  This is a significant figure. Because, as we know, almost no one with a mild flu ever goes to the hospital.

But whereas in the severe influenza season of 2017, in the USA, only 1.7% to 2.2% of outpatient visits were for the flu, currently the CDC is reporting that outpatient visits for the flu in the USA are 5.1 to 5.2% (Source: non static page).

The first observation to make is that seems that the Corona Virus media panic mongering has increased the number of outpatient visits for the common cold by 250%. That is an alarming statistic.

But from it we can infer, that the normal rate of influenza in the population is perhaps twice as much as reported by Medical authorities, since patients simply do not see a doctor for a mild flue unless they have some urgent sense of necessity to do so.

So, back to the Chinese statistic.  If 80% have only mild symptoms, that is 80% of those who went to a doctor or a hospital so that they could be counted. That means maybe as much as twice as much never came in. That would reduce the mortality rate to 1.7% effectively. But since 80% may never report it, that 1.7% needs to be reduced again to 0.425%

Now let us look at some statistics for corona virus mortality among those with pre-existing health conditions, as reported by Worldometers.info:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

Thus far Worldometer.info.

So as we can see here, the death rate for those with pre-existing conditions is 8 to 14 times greater than the general population.

This means, that of the 0.425% mortality rates, we can expect that a large proportion comes from these patients. But to see if that is so, we need to look at the rate of these conditions in the general population.

For this I will go to a peer reviewed Medical Journal, AHA, which states that 80% of the Chinese population has at least one cardiovascular risk factor. In addition, 45.9% have 2 risk factors and 17.2% percent have 3 risk factors. If we assume those with 3 risk factors are the Cardiovascular patients dying of Corona Virus when infected, that means that the death rates of 13.2% for those with Cadiovascular disease apply to those 17.2% of the population, to get an idea of how the overall rate of mortality is being skewed by those with cardiovascular disease. The result is that the mortality rates for cardiovascular disease patients may be a large part of the total 1.7% mortality rates for all those who contract Corona whether they report it or not, or even know it or not.

So if 17.2% of those who contract Corona Virus have cardiovascular disease risk, then nearly a sixth of the patients who are confirmed cases have a mortality rate of 14 times higher than the over all population which has no risk. This conclusion means that Cardiovascular victims might alone represent a large bulk of the total victims of Corona Virus.

The same calculation can be done with the other risk factors.

The result, even crude, as I have done here, means that the actual mortality rate for all who contract Corona Virus may be 10 times less, i.e.t 0.0425%. But the flu has a general mortality rate of 0.1%. So the actually mortality rate of Corona virus may be less than half of that that of the common cold. And this, because the total mortality rate, to be a true figure, must apply to the whole population which contracts the virus, and not just to those who go to the hospital because their case is severe enough for them to report it to a doctor.

Statistically, in Italy there are about 22,000 deaths per year from influenza. So far there are 1000 deaths from Corona virus 19.  That is a ratio of 1:20. So what we are seeing is not a sign of a pandemic, but only of another weaker common cold.

We can also infer, from this perhaps truer actual mortality rate, that once all the high risk population is depleted of potential victims in any one place, the virus will take no more victims. And thus, what we are seeing is not even an epidemic, but the medical result of complications in an already vulnerable population.

And this leads us to conclude that the Media are creating an unnecessary panic, and that unstable politicians who are totally ignorant of medicine and statistics are not reacting to the reality, but to the hype.

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3 thoughts on “Why the true mortality rates for Corona Virus may be less than 0.1%”

  1. The Fake News Media needs panic to sell. They have struggled with credibility and with ratings, viewers, numbers, also since the political campaigns of left wing politicians are dwindling. The need panic to sell, sell, sell.

    Like

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